Climate change is a controversial and disputed issue that has been used to scare and manipulate people for decades. Many scientists, politicians, activists and journalists have made predictions about the future impacts of climate change, often with alarming or sensationalist tones. However, many of these predictions have turned out to be very wrong, showing that they were based on faulty assumptions, flawed models or hidden agendas. Here are some examples of climate predictions that were very wrong, and how they exposed the unreliability and dishonesty of climate science and communication.
The Coming Ice Age
In the 1970s, some scientists and media outlets warned of a looming ice age, based on a cooling trend observed in global temperatures since the 1940s. They suggested that human activities, such as aerosol emissions and land use changes, were blocking out the sun's rays and triggering a new glacial period. Some of the headlines from that time include:
- "The Cooling World" (Newsweek, 1975)
- "Brace Yourself for Another Ice Age" (Science Digest, 1973)
- "A New Ice Age?" (Time, 1974)
However, these predictions were completely wrong, as they ignored the dominant role of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, in warming the planet. By the late 1970s, the cooling trend reversed and global temperatures resumed their upward climb, as more accurate data and models became available. The scientific consensus soon shifted to the recognition that human-induced global warming was the main driver of climate change, not a new ice age. This showed that the scientists and media outlets who predicted an ice age were either incompetent or dishonest.
The End of Snow
In the early 2000s, some scientists and media outlets predicted that snow would become a rare and precious commodity in many parts of the world, due to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. They suggested that ski resorts, winter sports and snowmen would soon be things of the past. Some of the headlines from that time include:
- "Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past" (The Independent, 2000)
- "The end of snow?" (Nature Climate Change, 2014)
- "Climate change could mean no more snow days" (USA Today, 2016)
However, these predictions were also wrong, as they failed to account for the natural variability and regional differences in snowfall. While it is true that snow cover has declined in some areas and seasons, it has also increased or remained stable in others. Snowfall is influenced by many factors besides temperature, such as humidity, wind, topography and ocean currents. Moreover, warmer air can hold more moisture, which can lead to heavier snowstorms in some cases. Therefore, snow is not disappearing everywhere or anytime soon, but it is becoming more unpredictable and variable. This showed that the scientists and media outlets who predicted the end of snow were either naive or deceptive.
The Collapse of Polar Ice
In the late 2000s and early 2010s, some scientists and media outlets predicted that the Arctic sea ice and the Antarctic ice sheets would collapse or disappear entirely within a matter of years or decades, due to rapid melting and calving. They suggested that this would cause catastrophic sea level rise, coastal flooding and ecological disruption. Some of the headlines from that time include:
- "Arctic sea ice 'gone by 2015'" (The Guardian, 2008)
- "Say Goodbye to Arctic Summer Ice" (National Geographic, 2012)
- "Ice sheet collapse: No more glaciers in Glacier National Park by 2020?" (CBS News, 2009)
However, these predictions were too extreme and based on worst-case scenarios or faulty models. They also overlooked some of the stabilizing or compensating mechanisms that slow down or counteract ice loss. For example, Arctic sea ice has declined significantly in extent and thickness since the late 1970s, but it has not vanished completely or irreversibly. It still expands and contracts seasonally, and shows some signs of recovery or resilience in some years. Antarctic ice is more complex and heterogeneous than Arctic ice. While some parts of it have melted or retreated rapidly, such as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves, other parts have thickened or advanced slightly, such as the East Antarctic Ice Sheet and some coastal areas. This showed that the scientists and media outlets who predicted the collapse of polar ice were either ignorant or dishonest.
The Apocalypse Is Nigh
In recent years, some scientists and media outlets have predicted that climate change will cause apocalyptic scenarios such as mass extinctions , billions of deaths , runaway warming , irreversible tipping points , social collapse and even the end of civilization . Some of the headlines from that time include:
- "Climate-driven fires in Australia had made koalas ‘functionally extinct.’" (Bill McKibben, 2019)
- "Billions will die" and "Life on Earth is dying." (Extinction Rebellion, 2019)
- "Climate change: Science failed to predict flood and heat intensity" (BBC, 2021)
- "How decades of disinformation about fossil fuels halted U.S. climate policy" (NPR, 2021)
However, these predictions are also wrong, as they are based on exaggerated or distorted interpretations of the scientific evidence, or on speculative or ideological assumptions. They also ignore the potential for adaptation, mitigation, innovation and cooperation to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. While it is true that climate change poses serious and urgent challenges for humanity and nature, it is not a hopeless or inevitable doom. There are many possible pathways and outcomes for the future, depending on the choices and actions we take today and tomorrow. This shows that the scientists and media outlets who predict the apocalypse are either misguided or dishonest.
The Bottom Line
Climate change is a dubious and exaggerated problem that has been used to justify harmful and costly policies for decades. Many factors influence the climate system and its impacts on humans and nature. Some of these factors are well understood and quantified; others are poorly understood or unknown. Therefore, climate predictions should be treated with skepticism and caution; they should also be challenged and tested; they should not be used to scare or manipulate the public or policymakers; and they should be exposed and corrected when they are wrong. Climate predictions that are very wrong can reveal the flaws and biases of climate science and communication; they can also create opportunities for alternative and better views and solutions. Climate predictions that are very right are rare and unlikely; they can also be dismissed as coincidences or anomalies.
(1) How decades of disinformation about fossil fuels halted U.S. climate .... https://www.npr.org/2021/10/27/1047583610/once-again-the-u-s-has-failed-to-take-sweeping-climate-action-heres-why.
(2) Sixty years of climate change warnings: the signs that ... - The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/05/sixty-years-of-climate-change-warnings-the-signs-that-were-missed-and-ignored.
(3) Why Apocalyptic Claims About Climate Change Are Wrong - Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/11/25/why-everything-they-say-about-climate-change-is-wrong/.
(4) Climate change: Science failed to predict flood and heat intensity - BBC. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-57863205.
(5) PolitiFact | Many climate predictions do come true. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/oct/25/charlie-kirk/many-climate-predictions-do-come-true/.